Brexit debate reignites as UK seeks future EU ties

Brexit has returned to the forefront of British political debate, at least in a limited sense, following remarks by a candidate for prime minister who described it as a catastrophic mistake and argued the UK’s future lies back in the European Union.

The comments underscore the deep wounds left by the 2016 referendum, which unleashed a powerful identity politics that continues to dominate UK discourse, dividing voters into the opposing camps of Remain and Leave.

Wes Streeting, the former health secretary who resigned to run for the Labour Party leadership and the keys to No. 10 Downing Street, made the remarks in what analysts see as a strategic move in the domestic contest to succeed the embattled Keir Starmer.

As Anand Menon of the UK in a Changing Europe thinktank notes, Streeting’s main rival in the race so far, Andy Burnham, is also a Remainer, but to run in the leadership contest, he must first win a by-election in a heavily Leave-voting constituency.

Burnham has since rowed back his EU enthusiasm, but Streeting’s plan is plainly to force the Manchester mayor to promise by-election voters he will not reverse Brexit, thus infuriating the nearly 90% of Labour Party members who want precisely that.

So far, so familiar: Britain’s political class arguing with itself about the EU is, believe me, no longer news in Europe. But if this latest bout has attracted a fraction more attention than usual, it is because there is interest in closer UK-EU ties here as well.

Since his election, Starmer has promised, variously, a full reset of relations with Europe, unprecedented access to the EU market, and a Britain back at the heart of Europe. What has been accomplished so far, though, are baby steps.

The UK will rejoin the Erasmus+ student exchange program, but a scheme to allow young Britons to live and work in EU countries and young EU citizens to live and work in the UK for a limited period is bogged down in disagreements over whether EU students should be charged UK home or international tuition fees.

UK integration into Europe’s electricity market has been held up by London’s refusal to pay into EU cohesion funds for less well-off member states. British reluctance to pay to play in Europe has also led to a disappointed UK being shut out of the bloc’s SAFE defense procurement fund.

London has said it hopes to have deals on food and agricultural products, carbon emissions trading, and youth mobility by the summer. But none of this will remotely fix what Starmer at least now admits is the deep economic damage of Brexit.

The scale of that damage is now accepted by all but staunch Brexiter economists: the National Bureau of Economic Research puts it at 6-8% of GDP, with Britain’s trade with Europe down 15% on what it might have been. Trade deals elsewhere have brought little benefit.

The economic hit is also felt in the EU, albeit to a far lesser extent: while trade with the UK represented 10-15% of the EU’s total, the EU accounted for 45-50% of the UK’s. Public opinion in the UK reflects this reality: YouGov polling suggests 63% of Britons want closer ties with the EU and 55% want to rejoin. Support for Britain’s return is above 50% in many EU countries.

But the economy is only part of the story. Geopolitics are bigger. The world of 2026 is not the same as that of a decade ago. Russia is waging war on Ukraine, on the EU’s doorstep. The US has talked seriously about invading NATO territory.

The transatlantic alliance is severely shaken, EU ties with the US strained to breaking point, and the UK-US special relationship dead in the water. The rules-based international order itself is in danger, maybe even in terminal decline.

All of which now means Europe’s leaders would quite like stronger UK-EU ties too. They always did say the UK would be welcome back. But now Finland’s Alexander Stubb concludes Brexit was like amputating a leg without medical reason.

Hungary’s new prime minister, Péter Magyar, said at his election press conference he hoped Britain would one day return. French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot said Britain would be met with open arms if it rejoined even just the single market.

It is worth pausing a moment at Barrot’s remarks. Because the French minister’s full phrase was come back to the single market, with all associated privileges and duties. And there, not for the first time in the UK’s relations with Europe, is the rub.

At present, the red lines of Labour’s election manifesto – no return to the customs union, single market, or free movement, and of course no whole-hog rejoining the EU itself – prevent any real rapprochement that would actually move the UK’s economic dial.

And as Lisa O’Carroll pointed out in this explainer, any rapprochement that would do that – rejoining, Swiss-style frictionless access, the Norway option – would entail budget contributions, full regulatory alignment, and free movement.

There is a menu of choices as regards your relationship with the EU, Radosław Sikorski, Poland’s foreign minister, recently explained of Britain. But every item on the menu has a price in terms of sovereignty, in terms of honoring rules that you did not make yourself.

Sikorski is not alone in thinking that the UK seems unable to accept that. In fact, he argues, Britain has still not fully internalized the fundamental European deal: you get more benefits in return for more pooling of some aspects of sovereignty.

Those European doubts will need lifting before any serious steps are made toward a significantly closer relationship – including rejoining. The comments Jennifer Rankin garnered in Brussels made it crystal clear that yes, Britain would be warmly welcomed back – but on the same terms as any new member: no opt-outs; no rebate; no à la carte deal.

Negotiations would be hard, with tough talks around free movement, the passport-free Schengen zone, the budget, very probably the euro. But all that is irrelevant until Britain has decided what it actually wants, and what it is prepared to pay for it.

And for the UK to do that, it has to have an open and (above all) honest debate on the actual benefits and trade-offs, not cling to alternative realities. With Nigel Farage and half the media howling Betrayal! in the wings, Europe knows that will not happen anytime soon.

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