Japan’s World Cup Hopes: Can Samurai Blue Finally Break Last-16 Barrier?

Previous World Cup appearances: 7. Best performance: Last 16 (2002, 2010, 2018, 2022). First appearance: 1998 (France). Top goal scorer: Keisuke Honda (4). Most appearances: Yuto Nagatomo (15). Player to watch: Takefusa Kubo. FIFA world ranking: 18th. Fixtures: Netherlands (June 14, Dallas, US), Tunisia (June 20, Monterrey, Mexico), Sweden (June 25, Dallas, US).

Japan have been late bloomers in World Cup terms, reaching the tournament for the first time in 1998 but qualifying for every edition since.

While they have never advanced past the last 16 – even as co-hosts in 2002 – the current squad is arguably the most talented in the nation’s history.

Japan were the first team outside the hosts to qualify for the 2026 World Cup. The Samurai Blue have beaten Germany, Brazil, England and Spain since 2022.

While capable of beating any opponent on a given day, their ability to sustain a genuine title push over a long tournament remains uncertain, and the team has been rocked by an injury to star winger Kaoru Mitoma.

A 1-0 friendly win over England at Wembley in March, courtesy of a Mitoma goal, was well-deserved and sent a statement, despite caveats about England’s recent form and the subdued atmosphere.

It was only England coach Thomas Tuchel’s second defeat in charge, following a perfect qualification campaign.

Japan also beat a tricky Scotland side during the same international window.

At the 2022 World Cup, Japan claimed famous group-stage wins over Spain and Germany to top their standings, only to be eliminated in the last 16 by Croatia on penalties.

Japan are no longer a surprise package; they boast an elite, mostly European-based team.

Japanese right-winger Takefusa Kubo has vowed to fill the void left by Mitoma, who will miss the tournament with a hamstring injury sustained while playing for Brighton against Wolves in early May.

Kubo, 24, has had an outstanding season at Real Sociedad, tormenting La Liga defenses and helping his side lift the Copa del Rey.

He suffered a hamstring injury of his own in January that kept him out for nearly two months but is now fit and eager to compete.

“Mitoma’s injury is so disappointing. I got in touch with him directly but naturally, it’s a tough time for him, he’s such an important player,” Kubo was quoted as saying by Japanese media on Friday.

“I want to carry Mitoma’s feelings with me and give my all with an even greater sense of responsibility.”

While coach Hajime Moriyasu’s side relish unleashing their attacking talent, they can also be pragmatic when needed, employing a low block and maintaining defensive solidity, with a strong spine.

Former Arsenal defender Takehiro Tomiyasu – now at Ajax – has made the 26-man squad despite not playing for Japan in nearly two years due to a series of injuries, providing a major boost.

In midfield, Wataru Endo offers versatility alongside his leadership and defensive screening, Daichi Kamada of Crystal Palace provides creativity, and Ao Tanaka of Leeds United supplies energy and physicality.

Daizen Maeda, who can play as a left-winger or through the middle, starred for Celtic this season, scoring 14 goals and providing six assists in the league, including a critical goal in the final match that secured the Scottish title.

However, the lack of an elite out-and-out striker can blunt Japan’s attack, particularly on the counter at times.

There is also the psychological weight of multiple last-16 exits, which the Blue Samurai must overcome.

Japan are expected to qualify from Group F, with their opener against the Netherlands likely the toughest test but also an opportunity to make a statement.

Tunisia and Sweden probably lack the quality to contain Japan, but the Blue Samurai must avoid complacency.

Japan may finally break their last-16 hex, but the quarterfinals likely represent their ceiling, as the team’s limitations may eventually catch up.

Goalkeepers: Zion Suzuki, Keisuke Osako, Tomoki Hayakawa.

Defenders: Yuto Nagatomo, Shogo Taniguchi, Ko Itakura, Tsuyoshi Watanabe, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Hiroki Ito, Ayumu Seko, Yukinari Sugawara, Junnosuke Suzuki.

Midfielders: Wataru Endo, Junya Ito, Daichi Kamada, Ritsu Doan, Ao Tanaka, Kaishu Sano, Takefusa Kubo, Yuito Suzuki.

Forwards: Daizen Maeda, Koki Ogawa, Ayase Ueda, Keito Nakamura, Kento Shiogai, Keisuke Goto.