Trump approval rating drops to 37%, lowest of second term

Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen to its lowest point of his second term, driven by mounting frustration over the cost of living and the US-Israel war on Iran, according to a New York Times/Siena poll released Monday.

With November’s US midterm elections approaching, most American voters believe Trump’s decision to go to war with Iran was the wrong choice, the survey found.

The president’s approval rating now stands at 37%, the lowest level since he returned to office in January 2025, the poll showed.

Presidential approval ratings have historically offered a strong indicator of how the incumbent party will fare in upcoming elections.

Nearly two-thirds of voters said entering the conflict was the wrong call, while fewer than one in four said the war had been worth the costs, as the military campaign drags on and Trump weighs his next steps.

The economic toll has been felt globally since the US and Israel launched their initial attack on Iran in late February. Asked whether economic hardship was motivating him to seek a peace deal, Trump said last week: “I don’t think about Americans’ financial situation.”

The average US fuel price, a key benchmark ahead of elections, now stands at almost $4.52 per gallon, up from $3.18 a year ago, according to AAA data.

An estimated 64% of US voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, an issue long seen as his political bedrock, the Times/Siena poll found. A majority also gave him poor marks on managing the cost of living, immigration and the Israel-Palestine issue.

Among independent voters, 47% say his policies have personally hurt them, compared with 41% last fall.

Trump’s approval rating has been declining for some time. By October 2025, 10 months after his return, it had already fallen to 42% — the same level Joe Biden reached in April 2024, researchers at the University of Massachusetts Lowell noted. They said at the time that all the goodwill from his election victory appeared to have evaporated.

The administration’s heavy-handed deportation tactics, including two confrontations in which US citizens were killed by federal agents, undermined his support. But the fallout from the decision to join Israel in striking Iran, and the resulting oil crisis, appears to have accelerated the decline.

John Johnson, a 78-year-old contractor from Crescent Springs, Kentucky, who voted for Trump, told the Guardian this month: “Everybody’s suffering from gas prices.” On the war itself, he added: “Is it handled right? I don’t think so. It could have been handled differently, diplomatically more so.”

But the poll is not a straightforward win for Democrats either. Only 26% of voters said they were satisfied with the Democratic party, and 44% of Democrats expressed dissatisfaction with their own party.