Allies warn Andy Burnham faces perilous Makerfield byelection race for Labour

Allies say Andy Burnham faces a perilous race to win the Makerfield seat as he prepares to contest a byelection that could determine the long-term future of both the Labour Party and the country.

The Greater Manchester mayor is expected to be confirmed as Labour’s candidate for the northwest constituency later this week, but those close to him say he faces an uphill battle to defeat Reform UK.

Nigel Farage’s party won more than 50% of the vote in the local elections, and polling suggests Burnham holds only a narrow lead.

Reform is likely to focus heavily on immigration and Brexit in the coming weeks, aiming to exploit an escalating Labour row over whether the UK should seek to rejoin the European Union.

The byelection outcome will not only shape the immediate political future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer, whom Burnham has pledged to challenge if elected, but also the viability of the Labour Party as a whole.

Starmer spent the weekend at Chequers considering his political future, and allies say that despite his public defiance, he is now willing to step aside should Burnham win a clear mandate in Makerfield and no other challenger emerges.

If Burnham loses the byelection, it would leave Starmer in office but severely weakened by weeks of damaging attacks from his own MPs and without an obvious successor.

One ally said: “It’s impossible to underscore how perilous this is. I would give Andy a 45% chance of winning, maybe a bit more than that.

“It’s compelling to say tell progressive voters to vote for Andy to get Starmer out, but the flip side is you’re saying to Reform voters that if they vote Reform they can finish the Labour party off for good.”

Burnham spent the weekend in Greater Manchester, campaigning in Makerfield and in talks with senior Labour figures involved in the selection process.

Applications to run in the seat close at midday on Monday, with a formal candidate recommendation from Labour’s ruling executive committee set for Thursday. If Burnham is the only applicant, the process could move more quickly.

A vote in the seat is likely to be held on or around 18 June, giving Labour and Reform a four-week sprint before what could prove to be one of the most consequential byelections in British political history.

Pollsters say that despite the local election result, Burnham’s personal popularity across Greater Manchester gives him an even chance of winning the race.

Luke Tryl, director of the research group More in Common, said: “We have two amazing forces playing against each other – the demographics of the seat, which all point to a Reform win, versus Burnham’s personal factor.

“It makes the result really consequential. If Labour can’t win they may as well pack up and go home. If they do win, all bets are off in terms of the prime minister’s future.”

Labour figures say Burnham’s task was complicated over the weekend by a public row over whether the UK should rejoin the EU, following comments from another likely leadership rival, Wes Streeting.

Streeting said on Saturday that he believed Britain’s long-term future lay in rejoining the union – something quickly dismissed as “odd” by Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy.

Reform hopes to focus heavily on Labour’s position on European membership during the campaign, putting Burnham in a difficult position of deciding whether to side with the overwhelmingly pro-EU Labour membership or voters in Makerfield, 65% of whom voted to leave in 2016.

Labour’s position will face further testing on Wednesday when the Liberal Democrats lay an amendment to the King’s speech calling for the government to begin immediate talks on joining a customs union.

Starmer has ruled out such an agreement, but colleagues including Streeting argue this has hampered the government’s efforts to boost growth.

Immigration is also expected to feature heavily in the byelection campaign, placing Burnham in an even more difficult spot.

Many Labour members, whose votes he would need in a leadership contest, are pushing for the government to soften its changes to the asylum system, while many voters in seats like Makerfield call for an even stricter line.

Tom Baldwin, a former Labour official and Starmer’s biographer, said: “If Burnham says things which put him in opposition to a much closer relationship with Europe, or appears to adopt a hard line on immigration in order to win the byelection, it might yet make it harder for him to win the next election – among the party membership which appears to take a much more progressive view on these issues.”

Streeting will reiterate his pro-EU stance this week when he delivers a closely watched resignation speech in the Commons.

Allies say he intends to argue that the government has not been bold enough in its policies or its political arguments, and wants to focus not only on the EU relationship but also wealth taxes and the role of technology in people’s lives.

“There is no point in trying not to upset anybody, that’s what got us into this problem,” one said. “Sometimes you have to be willing to upset people to get things done.”

While potential successors jostle for position, Starmer is said to be reconsidering his previous determination to fight a leadership contest under any circumstances. Downing Street insisted on Sunday he would stand again if challenged, but friends say his position is softening. After a weekend at his official country estate, he has decided to delay a decision on his future until after the byelection, when it will become clearer whether he will face a challenge and from whom. One friend said: “His position is not ‘I will stand, come what may’. It depends on what happens, but at the same time it’s about not rushing to positions that might suit particular other factions in the Labour party.”