Trump’s Kentucky Victory Shows Grip on GOP but Shrinking Base

An AI-generated attack ad screamed that Rep. Thomas Massie was “caught in a throuple,” showing the Republican congressman dining with Reps. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez and Ilhan Omar before checking into a hotel with the two progressives. “Thomas Massie betrayed President Trump!” it added.

The crude tactic proved effective. Massie, who represents northern Kentucky, lost the most expensive House primary election in history Tuesday to Ed Gallrein, a farmer and former Navy SEAL backed by President Donald Trump.

Massie’s ousting after nearly 14 years underscored Trump’s continued dominance over the Republican Party, drawing a comparison to a mob boss who can place a horse’s head in any bed. White House communications director Steven Cheung posted on X: “Do not ever doubt President Trump and his political power. Fuck around, find out.”

But Trump’s allies risk drawing false hope from the Kentucky 4th Congressional District result. Trump commands fierce loyalty from a base that is shrinking, akin to a cult leader whose commune grows smaller while devotion intensifies.

Trump’s political demise has been greatly exaggerated before. He was written off after the Jan. 6 insurrection, but it was Rep. Liz Cheney, his leading Republican critic on that effort to subvert democracy, who lost her House seat in Wyoming in 2022.

Similarly, many thought the Jeffrey Epstein files would be Trump’s undoing, but Massie, who led Republican efforts with Democrat Ro Khanna to force release of the files, suffered the same fate as Cheney.

Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., posted on X: “So there you have it. If you lead a campaign against powerful pedophiles, you get drummed out of the Republican Party.” Former Republican Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene, now feuding with Trump, wrote: “Releasing the Epstein files was our demise. But it was worth every single bit because now everyone knows the truth.”

Even as negative headlines swirled, Trump quietly notched political victories. The Supreme Court gutted a major section of the Voting Rights Act, giving Republicans power to redraw congressional maps to weaken minority influence. It also rejected Virginia Democrats’ emergency request to use a newly approved district map in the midterms.

Trump’s revenge tour proved successful. He secured the downfall of several Indiana state senators who defied him on redistricting and of Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, who voted to convict Trump in his Jan. 6 impeachment trial.

Massie, on paper, looked like a tougher target. Guardian interviews with Kentucky political insiders last month found confidence Massie could prevail, citing incumbency advantages and his reputation as a principled maverick in a state with a libertarian streak that birthed the Tea Party and elected wild cards like Sen. Rand Paul.

Trump went to work, branding Massie a “moron,” a “nut job” and a “major sleazebag.” He dispatched strategists Chris LaCivita and Tony Fabrizio to lead a political action committee backing Gallrein. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth also joined the campaign trail.

Massie, a critic of the Iran war who voted against U.S. aid to Israel, faced accusations of antisemitism, and pro-Israel groups spent millions against him. In his concession speech Tuesday, he quipped: “I would have come out sooner but I had to call my opponent to concede and it took a while to find him in Tel Aviv.”

Trump enjoyed more wins Tuesday. Kentucky Republicans chose Andy Barr, endorsed by Trump, as their Senate nominee to replace retiring Senate leader Mitch McConnell. Other Trump-backed candidates performed well or advanced.

The outcomes testify to Trump’s political resilience within the Republican Party, where his approval rating remains 82%, according to a New York Times/Siena College poll released Monday.

But the same poll showed Trump’s overall approval rating at 37%, the lowest of either term. Nearly two-thirds of voters disapprove of his handling of the economy and his decision to wage war on Iran. Democrats lead Republicans 50% to 39% on the generic congressional ballot.

This suggests the Republican Party is increasingly out of step with the country at large. Political commentator Chris Hayes told MS Now viewers Tuesday: “As the coalition collapses at large, the intensity of who’s left only grows, which means Trump’s control of that faction – increasingly a rump faction in American politics – is expanding, at the same time that his grip on the country is withering.”

“Which means this faction of Americans – the 37%, the 35%, who knows how low it will go – are effectively kind of holding the rest of the country hostage. The majority is being pillaged by the minority,” Hayes added.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., told Hayes: “It’s a tighter and tighter hold on a smaller and smaller group.”

The next test of Trump’s strength comes in Texas, where he endorsed state Attorney General Ken Paxton against incumbent Sen. John Cornyn in an upcoming Senate primary. Paxton, an extremist with personal and political baggage, is considered vulnerable to defeat by Democrat James Talarico.

Forget the Thucydides Trap. This is the Trump Trap: a self-tightening knot in which Republicans depend on Trump to win primaries, only to be doomed by him in general elections. Tuesday night proved he rules supreme in Maga-land, but that is only minority rule in America.