US Intensifies Pressure on Cuba Under Trump as Crisis Deepens

The United States has intensified pressure on Cuba amid global attention on President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing. The U.S. oil blockade has caused a humanitarian crisis, leading to nationwide blackouts, rare protests, school and university closures, and hospitals struggling to treat patients. U.S. surveillance flights circle the island. Federal prosecutors are preparing an indictment for former President Raúl Castro, age 94, the brother of Fidel Castro. Trump, boasting about the January kidnapping of Venezuela’s then-leader Nicolás Maduro, casually remarked that “Cuba is next.”

A military assault on Havana would be far more risky for the United States, even without the ongoing war in Iran, and would be disastrous for Cubans. Washington hopes that threats and economic deprivation will suffice. U.N. experts warn the blockade is unlawful, endangers human rights, and may constitute collective punishment. The Cuban government admitted Wednesday that fuel oil had run out. Tourism has collapsed. Canadian mining company Sherritt withdrew from a joint venture, and several countries have canceled contracts for Cuban doctors — a vital income source for the island and a provider of trained medical staff for others. Havana hopes to endure, but Trump is impatient.

On Thursday, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba to demand “fundamental changes.” The U.S. wants economic reform, closure of Chinese and Russian intelligence posts, and reportedly the removal of President Miguel Díaz-Canel. This would reinforce the administration’s message of U.S. control over the Americas. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a child of Cuban migrants, has long taken a hard line toward Havana. Cuban-Americans form an important part of Trump’s base. Reduced migration from Cuba — which has surged in recent years — would please supporters.

The decades-long U.S. embargo has been punitive. However, Cubans’ hostility toward the United States does not preclude anger at their own leaders, who failed to implement promised economic reforms during President Barack Obama’s thaw. A 2021 currency restructuring proved disastrous amid deep domestic weaknesses and intensified U.S. sanctions. That, along with a violent crackdown on resulting protests, destroyed the faith of many who believed in the revolution’s promises and achievements.

Cuba’s Deputy Prime Minister Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga said the country is open to relationships with U.S. companies in “key sectors.” The United States says that is insufficient. Alongside ideological hardliners at the top are those with vested interests in the status quo, particularly through Gaesa, the military-run conglomerate controlling a large portion of the economy. Yet some judge they would benefit more from a deal with the United States.

Years ago, Trump Organization officials explored future options for golf courses and hotels in Cuba. Massive expansion of the private sector, ore extraction, and foreign investment on Washington’s terms would benefit U.S. businesses and a few well-connected figures in Havana rather than Cubans as a whole. Cuba’s highly educated population is ripe for change that would offer older generations dignity and younger ones opportunity. Instead, they face ongoing collapse, a sordid deal, or worst of all, a military attack. Trump talks of “taking” Cuba, but the island belongs to the Cuban people.