Voters believe UK net migration rising despite sharp drop

Contrary to official figures showing a sharp decline, a majority of British voters mistakenly believe net migration is rising, according to a new study by the thinktank British Future.

The research, released ahead of the latest government migration statistics, found a significant gap between public perception and reality, with many believing immigration has increased even as numbers fall to their lowest level in years.

Net migration dropped from a peak of 944,000 in the year ending March 2023 to 204,000 in the year ending June 2025, government data show.

New figures due Thursday are expected to show a further decrease.

The study found that 67% of people who hold skeptical views on immigration believe net migration rose in 2025, compared with 37% of those with more liberal attitudes. Six in 10 respondents who want reduced immigration also think numbers are still climbing.

Only 15% of respondents expect net migration to be lower in the coming year.

The researchers also found that the public overestimates the share of asylum seekers in total immigration: respondents believe asylum seekers account for 33% of immigration, while the actual figure is about 9%. Similarly, people think students make up 24% of immigration, when in reality they constitute just over half.

“It’s little wonder voters think net migration is going up when the only debate we have is about how to bring it down,” said Sunder Katwala, director of British Future. “We should be having a conversation about how to manage the pressures and gains of migration to Britain.”

The perception gap is shaping not only the immigration debate but also broader politics, he said.

Political discourse on immigration has become increasingly polarized since the 2016 Brexit referendum. “Stop the boats” rhetoric and cross-party pledges to curb unauthorised Channel crossings have influenced public attitudes, despite the decline in numbers.

Guardian analysis has shown that Labour and Conservative MPs have spoken with greater hostility about immigration in the past five years than at almost any other time in the last century. British Future found that mistrust on immigration is shared across all parties.

Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood acknowledged a 69% drop in net migration in the 12 months to June 2025, to the lowest annual figure since 2021, but said: “We are going further because the pace and scale of migration has placed immense pressure on local communities.”

Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp responded: “We need to go much further.”

Reform UK has pledged to achieve “net zero” immigration. Party leader Nigel Farage has falsely claimed the fall in net migration was largely due to British emigration rather than reduced overseas arrivals.

Immigration ranks as the third most important issue for the public, behind only the cost of living and the National Health Service. Sophie Stowers, research manager at More in Common, attributed the misperception partly to visceral reactions to images of small boat arrivals and asylum hotels opening in towns.

“We know there’s not always a really clear tie between net migration levels and how the public feels about immigration,” Stowers said. “Net migration or legal migration is only part of the story, and ultimately it’s not the story most voters are concerned with.”

The British Future survey, conducted by Number Cruncher Politics, sampled 3,003 adults across Great Britain at the end of March. If current trends continue, all parties “may be looking at a very different immigration context” ahead of the 2029 general election, the report said.

Stowers said concerns about immigration and small boats are rooted in broader issues of security and stability. “It’s not even just about immigration any more; it’s a whole proxy for whether the system we have is working or not. I think that’s why it’s so difficult to have these conversations and why just talking about net migration going down doesn’t shift the dial.”