Haaland’s Norway to Ronaldo’s swansong: First-time World Cup winners analysis

When FIFA expanded the field for the 2026 World Cup to 48 teams, the sales pitch included giving more nations a chance at glory. In reality, the favorites are nearly always former champions.

To date, only eight nations have won the men’s World Cup. Yet few of the former champions arrive at this summer’s tournament in their finest form. Spain are a justifiably popular pick as the reigning European champions with plenty of world-class talent. Argentina will hope to defend their 2022 title after following it up with the Copa América in 2024. France, who top our power rankings, have reached the last two finals, and Kylian Mbappé claims this squad is the best he has been a part of.

Beyond them, however, lie plenty of questions. England strolled through qualifying but were unimpressive in their last two friendlies. Brazil struggled in qualifying, losing six matches, and are still acclimating to Carlo Ancelotti. Germany have some great young players but arrive without a dependable No. 9. Uruguay are a longshot under Marcelo Bielsa, while Italy missed out altogether again.

The newly hatched Round of 32 is another hurdle to trip up one of the favorites. Tack on the considerable travel teams must negotiate and historically high temperatures, plus expensive tickets that may lead to tense atmospheres as supporters look to get their money’s worth, and there are plenty of reasons to think we could be in for a surprise winner.

So who could be a first-time champion this summer? Let’s look at the contenders.

Best finish: Third place (1966)

Arguably as worthy a frontrunner as any of the past winners. Success wasn’t always a given for the Seleção in the 20th century, but the modern era has seen Portugal emerge with serious staying power. This may be their best all-around squad since they won their first major competition at Euro 2016.

This will almost certainly be Cristiano Ronaldo’s international swansong. He was a regular starter at center-forward in qualifying – though he hasn’t featured for Portugal since his petulant red card against Ireland in November. While his declining athleticism complicated Portugal’s 2022 World Cup campaign, this year’s team have better balance behind Ronaldo.

Vitinha is arguably the world’s finest midfielder, a metronome who can recirculate and break lines with ease and seldom abandons his station. João Neves has emerged alongside him at Paris Saint-Germain, while Bruno Fernandes arrives at the peak of his powers. The backline is more solid this time, too, with Gonçalo Inácio proving a dependable partner for Rúben Dias. Nuno Mendes is one of the world’s best full-backs, while Diogo Costa is dependable in goal.

There’s also plenty of strength behind the starters, including Gonçalo Ramos, the nimble João Félix, and gamechangers like Rúben Neves and Bernardo Silva. Roberto Martínez will be eager to erase the stigma of having arguably underperformed when he was in charge of Belgium’s golden generation with a deep run this time around.

Best finish: Runners-up (1974, 1978, 2010)

Can they get over the hump this time? The Dutch breezed through Uefa qualifying, outscoring opponents 27-4 across eight matches without defeat. The collective will always be in focus, as is customary for the nation and its national team alike, but Xavi Simons’s ACL injury robs Ronald Koeman of some needed unpredictability. There’s depth aplenty in defense and midfield, but the lack of a clinical goalscorer has hampered the Dutch in recent years. A balanced group also featuring Japan, Sweden and Tunisia will provide worthy tests before the knockout rounds start, where they’ll hope to better their run to the quarter-final in 1994, the last time the World Cup was played in North America.

Best finish: Fourth place (2022)

Depending whom you ask, Morocco are the reigning Africa Cup of Nations champions. Morocco won’t surprise their opponents as they did four years ago, storming to the semi-finals in Qatar with fearless counterattacking and a well-curated structure. Success in that tournament and thereafter has built an experienced group with a chip on their shoulder due to their asterisk-laden claim to continental supremacy. Keep an eye on 18-year-old Ayyoub Bouaddi: the midfielder had his switch from France approved after a promising season with Lille, and fills an area of need for Morocco manager Mohamed Ouahbi.

Best finish: Quarter-finalist (2002)

Depending whom you ask, Senegal are the reigning Africa Cup of Nations champions. One assumes they won’t leave games unless they’re explicitly told to do so this time around, though they’ll hope for fewer shenanigans around them in North America. A veteran core has maintained fairly good fitness since the winter, with Édouard Mendy (age 34) in goal, Kalidou Koulibaly (34) anchoring the backline, Idrissa Gueye (36) at the heart of the midfield and Sadio Mané (34) the program’s record scorer. Younger players have begun to emerge, as evidenced by a team effort en route to the Afcon final, but few have forced the old guard toward the door. Young midfielder Habib Diarra (22) could turn heads after navigating his club-record switch from Strasbourg to Sunderland with great success.

Best finish: Round of 16 (2002, 2010, 2018, 2022)

While Japan have yet to advance to even the quarter-finals, they earned rave reviews at the last two World Cups for valiant challenges. Hajime Moriyasu has his finger on his team’s pulse and makes Samurai Blue a difficult matchup for any opponent. Just ask England, who fell 1-0 to Japan in a friendly earlier this year. Zion Suzuki has been sharp in goal for Parma and could get a boost by playing two group games in the US, where he was born. Kaoru Mitoma’s absence as he recovers from a hamstring injury is a shame, but a deep squad could finally reach the tournament’s business end in a year without clear favorites.

Canada: Group stage (1986, 2022) Mexico: Quarter-finals (1970, 1986) United States: Third place (1930)

“Success” will be defined on different curves for each co-host, but none of them are likely to reach the final. Canada will hope to advance from the group stage for the first time, with Jesse Marsch blessed with plenty of fine strikers but a relatively thin midfield and defense. Mauricio Pochettino still seems to be learning the nuances of international management, and a first quarter-final since 2002 would be a fine showing to cap a tumultuous cycle for the USMNT. Both of Mexico’s runs to the quarter-finals came on home soil, boding well for this instalment, and 17-year-old phenom Gilberto Mora could be the breakout star of the summer.

Best finish: Round of 16 (2006)

The best of the rest in South America at present, Ecuador trailed only Argentina in Conmebol qualifying and hope to avenge 2022’s failure to advance from a watered-down Group A. Their squad is thin in areas, but they have one of the field’s best defenses (Pervis Estupiñán, Willian Pacho, Piero Hincapié and Joel Ordóñez). Enner Valencia, his country’s all-time leading scorer with 49 goals, remains a man for the big moment.

Best finish: Third place (2002)

Turkey’s impenetrable defense made them a shock semi-finalist in 2002, and they’re making their return to the World Cup after a 24-year absence. This generation boasts considerable high-end talent (Hakan Çalhanoğlu, Arda Güler, Kenan Yıldız), a deep defense that won’t shy from the thankless stuff. They could easily win their group – which also features the US, Australia and Paraguay – but a 6-0 loss at home to Spain in the qualifiers showed just how far a gap remains between them and the global heavyweights. Perhaps Uğurcan Çakır has a flawless Rüştü Reçber impression up his sleeves …

Best finish: Round of 16 (1938, 1998)

Norway were flawless in the qualifiers: they won all eight of their games and scored 37 goals in a group that featured Italy to snap a 28-year World Cup drought. While they lack a top goalkeeper and there remain questions about a few spots in Ståle Solbakken’s lineup, they have something no opponent can match: Erling Haaland, the world’s best striker. Norwegians will anxiously monitor Martin Ødegaard’s fitness, but if Haaland and the bruising Alexander Sørloth maximize their chances, they’ll keep opponents from getting comfortable.

While the odds still favor established powers, the expanded format, extreme travel demands, and unpredictable conditions create an unparalleled opportunity for a new nation to claim the World Cup for the first time.