One Nation’s Climate Science Denial: Why It Matters

Australia’s right-wing populist One Nation party is surging in the polls, yet its position on climate change remains firmly rooted in denial of decades of scientific evidence showing the planet and Australia are warming.

The scientific link between burning fossil fuels and rising global temperatures dates back 130 years, and as evidence has mounted, Australians are experiencing the consequences through increasingly extreme weather events.

One might expect such overwhelming evidence to make climate science denial untenable, but for One Nation, denial and conspiracy theories lie at the core of its climate policy.

Earlier versions of One Nation’s energy and climate policies were literal cut-and-pastes from the website of the now-defunct climate denial group the Galileo Movement, where former coal miner Malcolm Roberts worked as project manager before being elected as a One Nation senator.

One Nation still does not accept that the planet or Australia is warming and claims extreme weather was more prevalent before 1960.

“This is like saying the Earth is flat,” said Prof Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick, a climate scientist and expert on weather extremes at Australian National University. “It’s bullshit. There’s a wealth of evidence that extreme heat events are increasing worldwide since the 1950s. We see increased intensity of droughts and heatwaves and the intensity of tropical cyclones is increasing. But you can’t argue with stupid.”

Research from CSIRO a decade ago suggests that views on climate change can be influenced by a person’s voting behavior, rather than the other way around, meaning votes for One Nation could lead more people to reject climate science.

Dr John Cook, an expert on climate science denial and honorary research fellow at the University of Melbourne, said One Nation is “not only out of touch with the scientific evidence, they’re even out of touch with the rest of the climate denial community.”

“Over the last decade, climate misinformation has been transitioning from science denial to attacking climate solutions,” he said. “The scientific evidence for human-caused global warming is so undeniable, denying the science has become untenable and climate misinformation has had to make a strategic retreat.”

Despite melting glaciers, rising seas, increasing heat and rainfall extremes, worsening bushfire weather, and warnings from scientific academies worldwide that the planet is heating at an alarming rate, One Nation says it is unconvinced.

One Nation is also unconvinced that temperatures in Australia in recent decades have been the hottest on record, instead pointing to pre-1910 temperature readings to claim it was hotter back then, a claim disproven by research.

Researchers have closely examined pre-1910 records and found that temperatures from 1860 to 1909 were similar to those from 1910 to 1959, while since 1960 maximum and minimum temperatures have risen significantly.

The independent Berkeley Earth group has also used pre-1910 temperatures to chart Australia’s changing climate, showing the country has warmed significantly since the 1880s.

The Bureau of Meteorology does not use temperature observations from before 1910 in its official long-term climate dataset, which shows Australia has warmed by 1.5C since 1910.

Temperature readings before 1910 were often taken with non-standardized equipment—such as thermometers exposed to the elements—making them less reliable.

But One Nation points to a single weather station—Nobby’s in Newcastle—to claim this shows no pattern of warming and therefore people should doubt that Australia is warming.

Dr Linden Ashcroft, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne who led research into older temperature records, dismissed the tactic.

“To base a claim that climate change isn’t happening because of this one weather station is a classic example of cherrypicking, where a person finds a piece of information that supports the story they want to tell while ignoring all the other evidence,” he said. “Temperatures are warming across Australia.”

One Nation references a 2015 study to suggest a 41,000-year cycle of Earth’s tilt could be causing severe droughts and floods.

Prof Kristine DeLong, one of the authors of that research at Louisiana State University, said One Nation’s use of the study was “a common trope of the anti-human-induced climate change movement.”

“Is there natural climate change on long 100,000-to-10,000-year scales? Yes. The ice ages were real, and our planet went through dramatic changes on 100,000-to-10,000-year timescales; these changes are not on the timescale of a human life span or cause weather events,” she said.

One Nation wants Australia to leave the Paris agreement and would push to close down the federal climate change department “and all related agencies, regulations and programs.”

“We are the only political party to question climate science,” the party says. Observers say they should ask themselves why.

One Nation does not see “net zero” as an attempt by Australia to do its share in global efforts to avoid the worst climate outcomes, but instead as “a vehicle for creating a socialist Australia in which citizens are forced under comprehensive government control.”

One Nation claims this is part of a conspiracy to restrict and control people’s movement, diets, employment, housing, education, and purchases, pointing to a quote attributed to former World Economic Forum chair Klaus Schwab that “you’ll own nothing and be happy.”

However, Schwab never actually made that statement; its origin is an essay by a Danish MP about a hypothetical future city where renting services replace material possessions and AI and robots do most work.

One Nation blames “net zero” and renewable energy for increases in the cost of living and a “massive increase” in electricity costs.

This false claim is repeated by One Nation’s high-profile New England MP Barnaby Joyce, as well as by the Coalition, and is rarely challenged by broadcast journalists.

“It’s a load of rubbish,” said Dr Dylan McConnell, an energy systems expert at the University of New South Wales. “We have an ageing system that needs replacing and the cheapest way to do that is with renewables and storage.”

While electricity prices in Australia have risen, experts say it has very little to do with renewable energy and almost everything to do with rising international gas prices—supercharged by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine—and increased coal costs.

Research from CSIRO suggests that if 82% of Australia’s electricity came from renewables backed by storage, the generation cost would be a third less than current prices.

One Nation also claims the “cost to Australian taxpayers” of the renewable energy transition is “estimated at $1.5tn.” This is not true.

Net Zero Australia, the academic group behind that estimate, has said the figure is a misrepresentation of their work and not a cost to taxpayers.

Instead, the group said the estimate is cumulative capital investment needed by 2030 to reach net zero, most of which would come from overseas investors.

One Nation wants to build three modern “ultra super-critical” coal plants in Australia, claiming they could generate electricity at $50 to $70 per megawatt hour.

The party says these plants have lower emissions than Australia’s current fleet, though why they would care about emissions while rejecting the link between CO2 and global heating is unclear.

Those prices contrast with detailed CSIRO estimates showing that such modern coal plants, if built today, would generate electricity at between $121 and $195 per MWh, depending on how often they operate.

Griffith University researchers also examined what would have happened to wholesale electricity prices if, instead of adding renewables in recent years, only coal and gas were added.

They found excluding solar and wind would have meant 30-50% higher wholesale electricity prices.

One Nation claims Australia has the highest electricity prices in the world outside Europe, but comparing prices across economies is notoriously difficult due to different tax and subsidy regimes.

According to the Australian Energy Council, Australian prices are just 1 cent higher per kilowatt hour than the OECD average.

When adjusted for cost of living across different economies, Australian prices were well below the OECD average and equal to or less than more than 20 countries, including Japan, the UK, Mexico, and Colombia.

Graham Readfearn is an environment and climate correspondent at Guardian Australia.

This fact-based examination underscores the gap between One Nation’s claims and scientific consensus.

Polls indicate support for One Nation may increase, but its climate stance remains at odds with evidence.

The party’s continued reliance on discredited arguments raises questions about its policy credibility.

Climate scientists urge voters to evaluate information critically.