Trump’s pressure on Cuba: threats, blockade, and a humanitarian crisis

As the world focused on Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing, the United States intensified pressure on Cuba thousands of miles away. An oil blockade has plunged the island into a humanitarian crisis, with nationwide blackouts triggering rare protests, closure of schools and universities, and hospitals struggling to treat patients. U.S. surveillance flights circle overhead, and federal prosecutors are reportedly preparing an indictment for Raúl Castro, the 94-year-old former president and brother of Fidel. Trump has casually observed, while bragging about the kidnapping of Venezuela’s then leader Nicolás Maduro in January, that “Cuba is next.”

A military assault on Havana would be far more fraught for the U.S.—even without the war on Iran—and disastrous for Cubans. Washington hopes that threats and privation will be sufficient. U.N. experts warn that the blockade is unlawful, puts human rights at risk, and may amount to collective punishment. The Cuban government admitted Wednesday that fuel oil had run out. Tourism has collapsed. The Canadian mining company Sherritt pulled out of a joint venture, and countries have axed their contracts for Cuban doctors—a vital source of income for the island and trained medical staff for others. Havana may hope to stagger on, but Trump is not patient.

On Thursday, CIA Director John Ratcliffe traveled to Cuba to demand “fundamental changes.” The U.S. wants economic reform, closure of Chinese and Russian intelligence posts, and reportedly the removal of President Miguel Díaz-Canel. That would reinforce the administration’s message that it controls the Americas. Marco Rubio, secretary of state and child of Cuban migrants, has long taken a harsh line toward Havana; Cuban-Americans form an important part of Trump’s base. A cut in migration—Cuban rates have rocketed in recent years—would please supporters.

The decades-long U.S. embargo has been punitive. But Cubans’ hostility toward the U.S. does not preclude anger at their own leaders, who failed to push through promised economic reforms during Barack Obama’s thaw and launched a 2021 currency restructuring that proved disastrous amid deep domestic weaknesses and intensified U.S. sanctions. That, and the violent crackdown on resulting protests, destroyed the faith of many who believed in the promises and achievements of the revolution.

Cuba’s deputy prime minister, Óscar Pérez-Oliva Fraga, has said the country is open to relationships with U.S. companies in “key sectors.” The U.S. has said that’s not enough. Alongside ideological diehards at the top are those with vested interests in the status quo, especially via Gaesa, the military-run conglomerate controlling a huge swathe of the economy. Yet some judge they would do better from a deal with the U.S.

Many years ago, Trump Organization officials explored future options for golf and hotels in Cuba. Massive expansion of the private sector, ore extraction, and foreign investment on Washington’s terms would benefit U.S. businesses and a few well-connected figures in Havana, rather than Cubans as a whole. A highly educated population is ripe for change that would allow older generations dignity and give younger ones opportunity. Instead they appear to face ongoing collapse, a sordid deal, or a military attack. Trump talks of “taking” Cuba, but it belongs to the Cuban people.