UK Labour Leadership Contest Prospects Reveal Rivals’ Surprising Sides

The Labour Party has operated across three distinct realities over the past two weeks.

One reality features a prime minister celebrating positive economic data and lower migration figures while insisting he will contest the next election, even as his party seeks his removal.

Another reality involves a local byelection where Andy Burnham, the party’s left-wing hopeful for prime minister, must demonstrate he can attract Reform UK voters on migration and satisfy bond markets on fiscal rules.

The third reality features Wes Streeting, the party’s right-wing golden boy, who lacks sufficient support to launch a leadership challenge but continues his campaign to win the membership’s support, including a notably left-wing proposal for higher wealth taxes.

All three are potential contenders in a leadership contest that does not yet exist and may never happen, depending on voters in Makerfield, Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s ability to confront reality, and Labour MPs’ appetite for risk.

The hypothetical contest has revealed unexpected aspects of the rivals. Burnham, who criticized the government as too “in hock” to bond markets, recognizes he must demonstrate economic credibility to underpin his plans for devolution and stronger public controls on utilities.

Burnham also knows he cannot campaign in Makerfield as “open-borders Burnham,” a label used by Reform UK opponents, so he must quickly dismiss questions on the European Union and easing Shabana Mahmood’s changes to the immigration system. This stance will likely disappoint progressive Labour voters expecting a bigger policy shift.

The stakes are higher for Burnham than for Streeting, and their audiences differ. Streeting faces the possibility of a leadership contest where, without a course correction, he might replicate Liz Kendall’s 4.5% vote share in the 2015 race.

Consequently, Streeting has become more explicit on left-wing issues over the past six months. He called for recognition of a Palestinian state much earlier than cabinet colleagues and vigorously condemned Farage and far-right racism when the prime minister was slow to act.

Now freed from cabinet collective responsibility, Streeting has condemned the scapegoating of migrants and issued the first detailed policy of his leadership campaign: a wealth tax on capital gains.

It would be inaccurate to label either Burnham or Streeting as inauthentic; as individuals and party members, neither fully matches their public caricatures.

Burnham, as mayor of Manchester, has fostered business-friendly policies and overseen the fastest economic growth in the country. He is not a communist set on destroying the City of London, nor has he been a vocal supporter of open borders.

Streeting has long campaigned against racism and the far-right, including on Gaza, and was a prominent anti-Brexit voice. These are not convenient Damascene conversions.

However, Streeting’s leftward shift and Burnham’s rightward shift reflect the electoral bind facing Labour. According to YouGov, Labour lost nearly four times as many voters to the Greens as to Reform UK in the local elections.

Those votes are accumulating in cities with large Labour majorities that could switch to the Greens for the first time. Across the country, many seats with narrow margins could fall to Reform with just a small number of defectors. No ambitious Labour leader or prime minister can afford to focus on only one direction.