NOAA Predicts Below-Average 2026 Atlantic Hurricane Season

The United States will experience a below-normal hurricane season in 2026, federal government scientists announced Thursday, predicting eight to 14 named storms with winds of at least 39 mph.

“The season has a 55% chance of being below normal, 35% chance of near normal and a 10% chance of above normal,” said Neil Jacobs, administrator of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), during a press conference.

Of the eight to 14 named storms, forecasters expect one to three hurricanes to reach Category 3 to 5 strength with winds of 111 mph or higher, and three to six storms to develop into Category 1 hurricanes with winds of at least 74 mph.

Forecasters this year face a confounding mix of climatic factors, including warm ocean temperatures that can fuel more intense storms and a developing El Niño that can suppress Atlantic activity but generate stronger Pacific storms.

“There’s a 98% chance of El Niño conditions occurring later this season, and an 80% chance that this El Niño will be moderate to strong,” Jacobs said.

In the central and eastern Pacific, he said, forecasters predict a 70% chance of above-normal activity, with 15 to 22 named storms, nine to 14 hurricanes, five to nine major hurricanes in the eastern Pacific, and five to 13 tropical cyclones in the central Pacific.

The forecast came amid warnings from experts that the United States is unprepared for hurricane season. The Trump administration has overseen staffing cuts that have forced the National Weather Service (NWS) to scale back satellite and balloon launches – key components of the nation’s data collection system.

Cuts have also left staff at NOAA and the NWS “spread too thin,” meteorologist John Morales said, degrading the country’s ability to forecast climate-fueled extreme weather.

“As a result, we head into the 2026 Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons with a diminished lack of confidence in accurately forecasting tropical threats,” Morales said.

NOAA’s flagship weather model, the American Global Forecast System, has shown a decline in skill, pushing it back to 2019 levels of confidence, he added. “Whether that’s the result of missing balloon weather releases, or the loss of seasoned atmospheric-modeling scientists is yet unknown.”

Trump officials have also presided over big cuts to emergency management services and are considering further shrinkage, which experts warn could further erode U.S. capacity to handle hurricanes.

Predictions from private forecasting companies and scholars indicate the United States could see average or slightly below-average hurricane activity. Colorado State University predicts about three-quarters of typical storm activity, with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and three Category 3 or stronger storms. Accuweather expects a near-or-below average season with 11 to 16 named storms, up to seven of which could become hurricanes.

Research shows that as the climate crisis persists, the United States could experience more intense swings in hurricane activity, from quiet seasons to above-average ones from year to year.

A “below-average” hurricane season could still pose serious dangers to Americans, said Ken Graham, director of the NWS.

“Don’t let those words change the way you prepare,” he said. “Preparedness really is absolutely everything.”