Strait of Hormuz Control, Uranium Stockpile Hinder US-Iran Ceasefire Talks

Future control of the Strait of Hormuz and a U.S. demand that Iran export its stockpile of highly enriched uranium remain key stumbling blocks as Pakistani mediators continue seeking a permanent ceasefire they believe is still achievable between the United States and Iran.

Israel and Iran each fear the other is about to launch a surprise attack on its territory while U.S. President Donald Trump continues to insist a fresh assault on Iran remains an option available to him.

Pakistani Interior Minister Mohsen Naqvi met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi for the second time in two days in a bid to secure a breakthrough in talks, and it remains possible that a delayed visit to Tehran by Field Marshal Asim Munir, commander of the Pakistani army, will signal progress.

Munir had been scheduled to visit Tehran on Thursday, but a lack of progress postponed his arrival, and Pakistan may try to bring China in as a mediator. Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is due in Beijing on Saturday.

Iran has emphasized it seeks to postpone all talks on its nuclear program and focus instead on a permanent cessation of hostilities, which it hopes will include a phased lifting of U.S. sanctions, unfreezing of frozen Iranian assets, compensation for U.S.-Israeli war damage, and commitments not to resort to force in the future. The future management of the strategic Strait of Hormuz is a key point of dispute, with Pakistan floating plans for joint control under U.N. auspices.

Tehran has also proposed that its recently created Persian Gulf Strait Authority take responsibility for the channel, where fees would be charged and ships would have to follow instructions on selected transit routes. The Iranian ambassador to France confirmed that Iran is seeking Oman’s cooperation with the plan.

Five Gulf states have written a letter to the International Maritime Authority, a global shipping watchdog, urging merchant and commercial ships not to engage with the PGSA.

The signatories are Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. The letter does not include Oman, but Oman, which under the proposal would be the authority on the south side of the strait, is wary of Tehran’s proposal.

In their letter, the five states warn: “Iran’s purported route should be seen for what it is, an attempt to control traffic through the strait by forcing vessels to use a route within its territorial waters, which can be exploited for monetary gain through the imposition of toll fees. Any understanding or recognition of Iran’s proposed route and PGSA as an alternative would set a dangerous precedent.”

At a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Sweden, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned: “Iran is trying to create a tolling system. They’re trying to convince Oman… to join them in a tolling system in an international waterway. There is not a country in the world that should accept that.”

He again expressed disappointment at Europe’s refusal to do more to keep the strait open.

Meanwhile, analysts argue that much of what U.S. administration officials say about the status of the talks must be filtered through Washington’s need to massage the global price of oil down.

Esmail Baghaei, spokesperson for the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, told state media: “At this stage, the focus of the negotiations is on ending the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and the claims made in the media about nuclear issues, including the issue of enriched material or the enrichment debate, are merely media speculation and lack credibility.”

Baghaei was referring to speculation that arose after Trump’s statements on Thursday when he spoke about Iran’s stockpile of highly enriched uranium. He said: “We will get it. We don’t need it, we don’t want it. We will probably even destroy it after we get it, but we will not let them get it.”

Russia has offered to receive the stockpile, but Iran says it will downblend the stockpile inside Iran itself.